ESPN prediction gives North Carolina slight advantage hosting the Clemson Tigers

Clemson Basketball looks to continue its recent dominance in Chapel Hill tonight against No. 17 UNC.
Feb 6, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Brad Brownell walks off the floor after the victory at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Feb 6, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Brad Brownell walks off the floor after the victory at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Clemson basketball dreams went a long way to die for almost six decades, at Chapel Hill. The now-legendary 0-59 streak in the “Southern Part of Heaven” is one of the most peculiar stats in sports history.

But lately? Brad Brownell has been treating the Dean Dome like a home away from home. It’s 7 p.m. ET tonight, and the Clemson Tigers (21-8, 11-5 ACC) cap the road schedule with No. 17 North Carolina (23-6, 11-5). With the two sides trapped in the ACC standings, this is more than just a rivalry game—it’s a fight over a double-bye in Charlotte and a giant Quad 1 feather in the cap for the NCAA Selection Committee.

History tells us UNC leads this series 136-25, but this latest tape says otherwise. The Tigers have won two of the last three trips to Chapel Hill, including an 80-76 wire-to-wire thriller in 2024. That victory wasn’t just a mere win; it was a break-up of a 37-game losing streak in games against ranked UNC teams on the road. Now, on the back foot, the Tigers return with the power of a weekend upset over Louisville and a defense that KenPom currently ranks at No. 18 on the national list.

The biggest storyline coming toward tipoff is the health of UNC’s leading man. Forward Caleb Wilson has been sidelined since Feb. 10 with a hand injury. The Tar Heels head coach, Hubert Davis, suggested there is a “very small chance” Wilson even makes it back for the Duke game on Saturday, excluding him out for tonight.

Without Wilson, the Heels lose their leading offensive engine, placing the burden on 7-footer Henri Veesaar to fend off Clemson’s sledgehammer interior rotation of RJ Godfrey and Carter Welling. Now, this is a golden chance for Clemson to shore up their 6-5 performance in Quad 1 games.

ESPN’s Analytics is currently projecting the Tar Heels a 62 percent win rate, but the Tigers have earned a living this season, beating the "paper" odds.

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