The No. 18 Clemson Tigers were expected to be at Cameron Indoor Stadium this Saturday as the red-hot co-leaders of the ACC. Instead, they’re walking into a hornets’ nest with their momentum shattered and their analytic stock in freefall.
After an agonizing 76-66 home loss to Virginia Tech on Wednesday, the Tigers (20-5, 10-2 ACC) will now need to figure out how to take down No. 4 Duke (22-2, 11-1) in one of college basketball’s most grueling settings. But the computers are not smiling about their opportunities.
According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), Clemson has only a 10.8% chance for winning the upset. The metrics, which favor the Blue Devils at an impressive 89.2 percent, are essentially marking Saturday’s critical match a predicted blowout.
The ‘Virginia Tech Hangover’ The Tigers’ sudden slide into underdog territory comes after a lackluster outing against the Hokies that put an end to a streak of dominance. Before Wednesday, Clemson had won 13 of its last 14 games and 27 of its last 30 ACC regular-season games. But against Virginia Tech, the Tigers’ 16th-ranked defense — often the program’s calling card — unraveled.
Jailen Bedford (23 points) and Ben Hammond (19 points) carved up the perimeter, pushing Clemson into just its second home defeat of the year. The timing couldn't have been worse. As Clemson fell apart, Duke was busy recovering from its own defeat at North Carolina by smashing Pittsburgh 70-54.
The Blue Devils currently lead the nation in BPI rating (24.9), boasting a balanced attack both offensively and defensively, ranking in the top 20. A Past of Heartbreak at Cameron But Clemson is on the hunt for some kind of silver lining, there is a history from recent past that says otherwise. Even the Tigers’ final trip to Durham in January 2024 was a wire-tug-of-war, as they lost by 72-71 on a controversial foul call with one second left.
To continue this competitiveness, Clemson will need to take on Duke star Cameron Boozer.
The standout averages 23 points a game — fourth in the nation — and is the dynamo of a Duke team that ESPN now gives a 97% chance of winning the ACC regular-season title. Analysis The setback was so deep to Clemson’s conference hopes, the report said.
According to ESPN’s forecasts:
ACC Title Odds: slid from 4.8% to pitiful 3.4%.
BPI Standing: Was unchanged at No. 27 nationally, but ranks fourth among ACC teams (after Duke, Virginia and North Carolina).
Final Record Projection: 23.4 - 7.6.
Saturday’s tipoff will be from noon ET, on ESPN. The broadcast will play with a legendary trio: Dave O’Brien, Cory Alexander and Dick Vitale. And for Brad Brownell and the Tigers, it’s a no-nonsense exercise: turn a blind eye to the 10.8 percent chance and show that the “road warriors” who swept the West Coast this month are not done yet.