Needing to turn a season around, the Clemson Tigers head to North Carolina on Saturday at noon, expected to do just that by oddsmakers.
Dabo Swinney’s team, despite a 1-3 record coming off last week’s bye and not a single spread cover this season, enters the game as a 14-point favorite. They lost their last game as a more than two-touchdown favorite at home to Syracuse, right after dropping a field-goal game at Georgia Tech as a slight favorite.
The points might not matter on Saturday to the Tigers, who just need an ACC victory, but for bettors, Clemson is a hard sell.
So is North Carolina. The Tar Heels have at least covered two games, but neither came against a Power 4 school. Against the two major conference teams (TCU and UCF) that Bill Belichick faced in his first season as head coach, the Heels have lost by a combined 59 points.
Spread history
Clemson opened up around 13.5, so this line has tilted a bit in their favor. FanDuel had it at 14.5 early Saturday morning. Most other online sportsbooks kept the spread at 14.
That half-point could make a big difference in how bettors see this contest going, and there’s still a chance it could rise before kickoff.
Betting insights
Unsurprisingly, this is not one of the most-bet games at sportsbooks that provide that information. However, those who are wagering on Clemson-UNC are getting a vast majority of the money down on the Tigers.
DraftKings reported on Saturday morning that 82% of the game’s betting handle is on Clemson (-14), with just 18% of the dollars backing UNC. However, the bet percentage evened a little, with 63% of the tickets coming in on the Tigers.
Bettors are also all over the over 46.5 points, with 86% of the money and 85% of the bets pouring in on plenty of points being scored.
This is the lowest total points placed on a Clemson game since Week 4 of last season, when the Tigers and NC State combined for nearly 90 points with a line at 43.5.
Betting analysis
Don’t trust the Tigers right now. Unless they’re playing UNC. Sure, Clemson has been inept at times on offense, and they were a massive failure on defense against Syracuse. But there’s a reason why oddsmakers still think the Tigers are worthy of being a two-touchdown favorite and a reason why the betting market is pushing the spread higher.
That reason is North Carolina. While Clemson still has talent and some advanced metrics that aren’t terrible, the Heels have neither. UNC, simply put, has statistically played like one of, if not the worst, Power 4 teams in FBS this season.
Best bet (0-4)
The record above says fade this pick all day, but it’s really difficult not to take Clemson in this spot. Coming off a bye, with Swinney changing his tune around from “woe is me” to “great opportunity,” the Tigers have to bounce back at some point. There are just too many good players and coaches on this roster not to, and UNC is the exact kind of team that can get you healthy and confident against. Clemson -14 is the best bet this week.