The stakes are much lower for No. 8 Clemson this week against an opponent that isn’t ranked in the top 10 and is inside the Group of Five. So it’s no surprise that the Tigers head into Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. home game as a 31.5-point favorite over the Troy Trojans at FanDuel.
Clemson is looking to not only earn their first win of the season but also to put the LSU opening-week loss behind it, showcase a more explosive offense, and look like the team that was ranked in the top five in the preseason.
Troy stands in the Tigers’ way of doing those things, but putting up enough of a fight on a steamy Saturday afternoon in Death Valley against the prohibitive favorite seems like a very daunting task.
Spread history
Clemson opened up as a 32.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, and the spread shot up to 34 at some shops early in the week.
Since then, the line has been moving toward Troy. As of Saturday morning, Clemson was favored by 30.5 at DraftKings and Fanatics Sportsbook. It appears much of the buyback on the Trojans came during the middle of the week.
Betting insights
Saturday morning, DraftKings reported that 73% of the money and 88% of the bets were on Clemson, yet they offered the lowest spread in the market.
As for the point total of 51.5, DraftKings has seen 67% of the handle and 84% of the tickets come in on the over.
Betting analysis
This is a difficult spread to dissect. After all, neither team covered the spread in Week 1. It’s the most points Clemson has been favored in a game against an FBS opponent since 2022, and the Tigers have failed to cover this big a number over the last six consecutive games vs. FBS teams.
Oddsmakers likely got a bit too overzealous with this line. Troy doesn’t appear on paper to be very strong, but the Tigers are in a rare spot with little success from a trends standpoint. Bettors might be reluctant to trust that the favorite can win by this big a margin.
Also, there’s Dabo Swinney history at play here. He likes to get young players time on the field early in the season, and if Clemson takes a big lead in the second half, he’ll clear the bench, potentially allowing Troy to sneak in under the number.
Best bet (0-1)
Last week’s play was a dud as Antonio Williams was injured on the first drive and unable to return, killing the anytime touchdown play. We move on.
While it’s unlikely that Clemson loses this game straight up, is this the week Swinney’s squad gets back on track, or will there be more questions than answers? If you believe in the former, the Tigers are the play here. But even with a good performance, it’s a lot of points.
It’s better to trust Clemson’s defense. Whether or not the score gets out of hand, it’s going to be difficult for Troy to move the ball against this stout unit that held LSU to 17 points last week. The Trojans won’t get to 10 this week, so the best bet is Troy under 9.5 points. That said, you’ll be sweating it out if Swinney puts the third stringers in late in the fourth quarter.