No. 12 Clemson enters Saturday’s game in Atlanta as a small favorite over Georgia Tech. It’s the lowest spread the long-time series has seen since 2014, when the Yellow Jackets were a slight favorite at home.
This is a rivalry the Tigers have dominated, winning nine consecutive games outright and covering the spread seven times during that streak. Six of Clemson’s covers came with spreads of more than two touchdowns.
So why are the Tigers just a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings going into Bobby Dodd Stadium, which will likely contain quite a few fans in orange for the noon kickoff? Let’s take a look at the betting angles.
Spread history
The Tigers have not played up to the standard of a preseason top-five team through two weeks, losing to LSU at home before erasing a 13-point second-half deficit to beat Troy by 11. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech snagged a late win at Colorado in Week 1 before blowing out FCS Gardner-Webb last Saturday.
So it’s not a huge surprise that a betting line that opened Clemson -6.5 has come down to such a low number. FanDuel still has one of the highest lines on Clemson -3.5. DraftKings was still at -3 on Friday, but bumped the spread down to -2.5 by Saturday morning. Other sportsbooks are offering the same line, along with steep odds if you want to take the Tigers under a field goal.
Betting insights
BetMGM reported on Saturday morning that Clemson -3 is the third most-bet game of the day, and the Tigers are getting 61% of the money wagered but just 52% of the tickets.
DraftKings had Clemson getting a much higher 79% of the money and 74% of the bets, yet still dropped their spread to under three.
The total is seeing split action at DraftKings. The over 51.5 is catching 62% of the bets placed, but the under has seen 61% of the money.
Betting analysis
The line dropping and the money still coming in on the Tigers could signify sharp money on Georgia Tech, but it could represent other factors as well. Quarterback Haynes King not being on the injury report might be a big reason why bettors are backing the Yellow Jackets later in the week.
And Clemson hasn’t shown up in big spots lately, going 2-7 against the spread over their last nine games, including 0-2 this season. Georgia Tech has covered four of its last six, dating back to last season, so based on recent trends alone, the Yellow Jackets are a good option. However, the line is so low that it might not take much for the Tigers to cover it.
Best bet (0-2)
The last time Cade Klubnik faced Georgia Tech, he threw for four touchdowns. Dabo Swinney hasn’t lost a game in this series since Deshaun Watson blew out his knee as a freshman at Clemson. Maybe the Tigers found a running game spark last week. The defense is playing opportunistic football and forcing turnovers. Georgia Tech’s defense didn’t look great against a bad Colorado offense two weeks ago.
A loss here could derail Clemson's season, and that's usually when Swinney finds a way. It might be a lot to bank on and take some unforeseen belief from this year’s squad, but Clemson is still the better team, and there are a lot more ways for them to cover this small a spread than Georgia Tech. The best bet is the Tigers -2.5, even with the higher juice.