With Clemson now on its bye week, let us take a deeper dive into what it might take for the Tigers to actually qualify for the College Football Playoff. At 3-2 overall and 2-1 in ACC play, the Tigers will likely need to win out, and then some, to have a semi-realistic chance at qualifying for the 12-team field. They have five ACC games left, one against Charleston Southern, and home versus South Carolina.
The good news for Clemson is the Tigers have many winnable games left. The bad news is they may not play another ranked team the rest of the way. Unless Duke holds up, Virginia Tech comes alive, or if Florida State harnesses the momentum from the Virginia blowout, that might be all she wrote for Dabo Swinney's team to get any pelts on the wall. This all comes down to their largest issue at hand.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Clemson only has a 1.4-percentage chance of making the playoffs. Seven teams in the ACC have a better shot of qualifying than the Tigers based on their FPI percentages: Miami (92.7), Pittsburgh (27.7), Wake Forest (13.1), Duke (11.0), SMU (5.3), Florida State (2.1), and Virginia Tech (1.9). After playing Miami, Duke will only play three of these teams this season.
What needs to happen for Clemson to make the CFP out of the bye week?
The most important thing Clemson cannot do the rest of the way this season is to drop another ACC game, especially to teams with better playoff percentage chances ahead of them. Duke is likely the best team Clemson will face moving forward. That game will be on the road for a Friday night kick during the penultimate week of the season. There is a chance Duke could start the season out 9-0.
While Clemson cannot afford a loss to Charleston Southern from an optical standpoint, it could technically lose the Palmetto Bowl to South Carolina and still get in. Again, non-conference losses are no longer as punitive as ACC defeats. As long as Clemson gets through ACC play with a 7-1 record, with its only loss being at home to Miami, the Tigers will be on a shortlist of teams who could make it.
Of course, this would require Clemson to defeat Miami in a rematch, or whoever they would face, in the ACC Championship Game. While Duke got the short end of the stick last season as a Power Four champion, that will no longer be the case this year. As long as Clemson can still technically play for an ACC Championship, they are still alive to make the College Football Playoff. How likely is it to happen?
Clemson is one of five teams who will only be playing eight ACC games this year, while the other 12 play nine. This is in part because Clemson had to finish its home-and-home with LSU after losing to them last year. Simply put, a second conference loss, especially one to Duke, Florida State, or Virginia Tech might be too much to overcome. Losing to Georgia Tech or Syracuse will not help much either.
Ultimately, Clemson needs to do whatever it can to be the other team getting to Charlotte, outside of likely Miami. As long as the Tigers win that rematch, they will make the playoff. Unfortunately, the gap between Clemson and Miami is gargantuan and growing wider. Right now, Clemson's shot of making the playoff are reflected by how little of a percentage chance the Football Playoff Index gives them.
Clemson needs to finish ACC play at 7-1 to even have a shot at potentially winning the ACC to get in.
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