Fresh off their biggest win of the season, the Clemson Tigers look to keep the good vibes going into a late kick on Friday night versus the California Golden Bears. Both teams are 2-1 on the season, with conference wins, victories over lower-level teams, and tough losses to Power Four teams in the non-conference. You could say they are eventually matched, as shown by the low point spread coming in.
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Cal is only a 1.5-point home favorite over Clemson. If the game were being played at Death Valley, Clemson would be the slight favorite, possibly by as many as four points. For the Tigers to pull off the slight road upset over Cal, Clemson needs to come to a handful of important realizations. The sooner they come to grips with what all happened versus North Carolina, the better.
Should Clemson accept these undeniable truths coming in, the Tigers could improve to 3-1 (2-0).
Dabo Swinney has a massive head-coaching advantage over Tosh Lupoi
This almost goes without saying, but that does not mean it is any less important. This will be Tosh Lupoi's fourth game leading his alma mater, Cal. While he is a well-respected defensive mind and a promising head coach coming in, Dabo Swinney has been at this for a significantly longer time. Yes, anyone can beat anyone on any given Saturday, or Friday in this case. However, coaching will matter.
Coming off a huge emotional win over Bill Belichick, Swinney should feel as confident as ever about his coaching chops. Tom Allen called a great defensive game plan throughout. Chad Morris got better at offensive play-calling as the game went along. Rich Bisaccia's special teams are as good as ever. While Matt Luke's offensive line is still a work in progress, Clemson's staff is rallying behind Swinney.
Cal has a talented football team, but Clemson could kick it into a higher gear with better coaching.
Tait Reynolds is rapidly improving, but Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele is, too
Outside of the late Friday night kickoff time, the other big talking point coming in about this game has everything to do with the two up-and-coming starting quarterbacks. It will be Clemson's talented true freshman Tait Reynolds going up against Cal's sensational sophomore Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. While Sagapolutele has many more starts than Reynolds, the Clemson quarterback is improving fast.
With every rep he gets in practice and every play he runs in a game, Reynolds is getting better. Will that be enough to thwart Sagapolutele in this late-night kick on Friday night? The good news is he did show enough last weekend versus North Carolina to be the undisputed starter coming into this game. The bad news is he will have to play even better to knock off Cal's underrated team in a difficult spot.
The most important thing that must happen is for Morris and Reynolds to get on the same page early.
Tom Allen can only lean on his secondary so much while run game waffles
After three weeks, we are starting to come to grips with the type of defense Clemson will have this year. On a positive note, the secondary is rapidly improving thanks to its three transfer portal pickups. The Tigers also seem to tackle well and save their best football for third- and fourth-down situations. However, the pass rush could be better, and the defensive line is nowhere near where it needs to be.
After giving up over 200 yards again on the ground versus a Power Four team, Tom Allen cannot allow that to continue versus Cal. The good news is Cal is averaging only 93 rushing yards per game versus Power Four competition. Syracuse, of all teams, held them to under 100 yards on the ground in Week 2. Simply put, if Clemson cannot stop Cal's so-so rushing attack, then this one could get out of hand.
As long as improving the run defense is a top priority for Allen, Clemson has a chance to win this one.
Gideon Davidson breaking out in a big way transforms Clemson's offense
It might get lost in the sauce for a bit, but Gideon Davidson's breakout performance versus UNC was exactly what this Clemson offense needed. He led the way for Clemson with 105 yards on 16 carries. His first touchdown to date for the Tigers was the deciding factor offensively in Clemson's comeback win over the Tar Heels. Now that he has fully arrived as the team's lead back, Swinney can lean on him.
Given that neither Chris Johnson Jr. nor Jarvis Green played well backing him up, Davidson's play in the Clemson backfield has never been more important. He needs to build on this to not only allow Reynolds to play with more confidence, but also to help the entire offensive line. The sooner the Tigers can establish a strong running game, the better off Clemson will be. It must become balanced.
One of the best ways to keep the ball out of Sagapolutele's hands is to pound the rock with Davidson.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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