Clemson football: ESPN FPI gives Tigers just 37% chance of beating Pitt

The Clemson football program hasn’t been an underdog against an ACC opponent since 2014 when the Tigers traveled to Tallahassee to take on the No. 1-ranked Florida State Seminoles.

Now, as we head into Saturday, the Tigers will be a Vegas underdog against a Pittsburgh team that many believe is now the favorite to win the ACC Championship.

Just how much of a favorite is Pittsburgh heading into this one?

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Clemson just a 37 percent chance of winning the game. Pittsburgh, the home favorite, is given a 63 percent chance of winning.

Things aren’t looking good for Clemson football, but maybe that’s what the Tigers need

There is a reason that the vast majority of money is going on Pittsburgh and there is a reason that the FPI– as much as we like to contest the formula at times– is giving the Panthers such a high chance at winning the game.

Clemson just hasn’t been very good thus far.

The Tigers have one of the worst offenses not just in the ACC, but in the nation. They’ve yet to score more than 21 points against an FBS opponent and there is nothing to indicate that the streak is going to end this weekend against a Pittsburgh team that will challenge Clemson at the lines of scrimmage and look to force D.J. Uiagalelei to beat them.

If the offense wasn’t bad enough, Clemson will be without starting center Hunter Rayburn for another week due to protocol and now the most productive wide receiver in Joseph Ngata will be out due to protocol, as well. 

When you add in all the injuries and the fact that Pitt has one of the best– if not the best– offenses in the ACC and the best offense that Clemson will have faced this season, you can see why this might be a long day for the Tigers.

The only hope? Maybe playing in the underdog role gives this team a new sense of confidence and a renewed “swagger” that allows them to play closer to the potential we know is there. If that’s the case, maybe Clemson finds a way to win, but if we continue to see what we’ve seen in the past six games, we unfortunately shouldn’t be expecting the Tigers to come out of Heinz Field victorious.