The more we think about the CFB Playoff committee’s first poll, the less we’re convinced that Clemson football controls its own destiny.
‘Win and you’re in.’ That’s what we’ve all thought when it comes to Clemson football and getting back to the CFB Playoff.
Well, on Tuesday, the CFB Playoff committee released its first rankings and it had the Tigers outside the top-four- at No. 5- behind the likes of Alabama, LSU, Penn State and Ohio State.
There was obviously no reason for Clemson football fans to panic because Alabama and LSU play each other. Penn State and Ohio State will play each other, as well. That means that there will be at least two spots for the Tigers to move up the rankings in the next few weeks, right?
Well, you’d at least think so. See, the problem I’m seeing is that we’re relying too much on ‘what should happen’ versus ‘what could happen.’
What should happen…
What should happen is pretty simple. The loser of LSU-Alabama should fall to No. 5. The Tigers should move up to at least No. 4.
The loser of Ohio State-Penn State should drop out of the top-four, as well, in a couple of weeks. Assuming that there haven’t been other upsets.
What could happen…
Here’s the problem that I’m seeing. The more I’ve thought about it, the more I’m convinced that the loser of LSU-Alabama isn’t dropping out of the top-four. They absolutely should, but the committee has already forgiven Georgia’s loss to South Carolina because they had a ‘quality’ win over an overrated Florida team.
Do you really think they’re going to punish the loser of a game that’s supposedly No. 2 vs. No. 3?
In the same case, I believe that the loser of Ohio State-Penn State should fall out of the top-four. However, what if the loser of that game is the Buckeyes? We all assume it’s going to be Penn State. If it’s Ohio State, is the committee really going to drop the team it had ranked No. 1 overall out of the top-four for a loss (if it’s close)?
They’ve already deemed Clemson football as a one-loss team for all intents and purposes because the Tigers played a close game against UNC and they have a perceived weak schedule due to the ACC being down. If that’s truly what they think of Clemson, do you believe that they’d have a problem scooting a one-loss Ohio State or Alabama (for example) ahead of the Tigers when the final poll comes out?
Especially since, by then, Alabama and Ohio State would both have another ‘quality win’ with the Buckeyes defeating Michigan and Alabama defeating Auburn. (By the way, yes I know that neither of those are truly quality wins.)
The path to the playoff is not as clear as it should be and that’s all because of the lack of transparency put forth by the CFB Playoff committee. The committee is using one set of criteria for one team and another for a different team. As a result, they are getting the matchups they want when they want them.
Do I believe a 13-0 Clemson football team should be in the playoff? Absolutely, without question. Does the committee? At this point, I’m not so certain.
The good news is that there’s a lot of football left to be played and there’s no guarantee any of these teams ahead or behind Clemson continue winning. I expect that we’ll see a couple of upsets along the way, but the truth is this: The Tigers may need those upsets to happen to get back to the playoff because the committee sure isn’t going to pull for them to get there.