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Clemson Football: Analytics for National Title rematch with Alabama

By Tyreese Ingram

Jan 11, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide center Ryan Kelly (70) prepares to snap the ball to quarterback Jake Coker (14) against the Clemson Tigers in the 2016 CFP National Championship at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 11, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide center Ryan Kelly (70) prepares to snap the ball to quarterback Jake Coker (14) against the Clemson Tigers in the 2016 CFP National Championship at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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The National Championship rematch between #1 Alabama and #2 Clemson will be broken down in so many ways, and statistics can’t be left out. 

Here are some analytics that will be very important in determining which team wins the third College Football Playoff Championship .

Defensive rankings (national position) via NCAA.COM

Dec 3, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Florida Gators running back Lamical Perine (22) is brought down by the Alabama Crimson Tide defense during the second quarter of the SEC Championship college football game at Georgia Dome. Alabama defeated Florida 54-16. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 3, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Florida Gators running back Lamical Perine (22) is brought down by the Alabama Crimson Tide defense during the second quarter of the SEC Championship college football game at Georgia Dome. Alabama defeated Florida 54-16. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /
  • Total Defense: Alabama 244.0 ypg (1), Clemson 306.9 (8)
  • Passing Yards Allowed: Alabama 182.0 ypg (14), Clemson 183.8 (17)
  • Rushing Defense: Alabama 62.0 ypg (1), Clemson123.0 (19)
  • Team Sacks: Alabama 3.57 pg (3), Clemson 3.50 (5)
  • Tackles for Loss: Clemson 8.8 pg (3), Alabama 8.0 (9)
  • Red Zone: Clemson(22), Alabama(45)
  • Scoring Defense: Alabama 11.4 ppg (1), Clemson 17.1 (7)

With the exception of red zone defense and rushing defense, the two teams are pretty comparable on the defensive side of the ball. Alabama only gives up 62.0 rushing yards a game to Clemson’s 123.0. Amazingly, the Tide improved on their 70.8 from 2015-16, and the Tigers slightly improved from 124.4.

Offensive rankings(national position)

  • Total Offense: Clemson 503.1 ypg (12), Alabama 460.9 (31)
  • Passing Offense: Clemson 327.8 ypg (7), Alabama 214.2 (81)
  • Rushing Offense: Alabama 246.7 ypg (11), Clemson 175.4 (62)
  • Sacks Allowed: Clemson 1.14 pg (13), Alabama 1.71 (40)
  • Tackles for Loss Allowed: Clemson 4.93 pg (26), Alabama 7.21 (108)
  • Red Zone: Alabama(25), Clemson(71)
  • Scoring Offense: Clemson 39.5 ppg (13), Alabama 39.4 (15)

There are a lot of similarities in the offensive stats from last season’s matchup. Alabama has the better rushing and red zone offense again, while Clemson leads in scoring, passing, protecting the quarterback, and total offense.

The rushing numbers for Clemson football are significantly down from the 228.6 ypg from 2015-16, but the uptake in passing yards from 283.4 to 327.8 is probably a direct reflection of those changes. Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson has run less(143 attempts to 187)and passed more(523 to 444)compared to this time last season.

Two more stats that should be highly considered in analysis of this game are turnovers and turnover margin. Alabama has the better turnover margin and is ranked 23rd nationally, conversely Clemson football is 64th. Both teams have gained 27 turnovers, but the Tide has only turned it over 19 times compared to the Tigers 27.

It’s been profusely noted that this Clemson football team is turnover prone and yet again they committed two more turnovers in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State. But what will be important in Monday’s match-up with Alabama is not allowing any turnovers to turn into touchdowns. Ohio State is second in the country with 7 defensive scores, but Alabama is first with 11 scores, so Clemson better take care of the ball.

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