Do you remember Encyclopedia Brown? I liked those stories when I was a kid. It was fun to see if you could spot the clue that good ol’ Leroy would use to break the case wide open. At this point you’re probably wondering how this relates to Clemson football.
I’ve put on my Encyclopedia Brown cap here for the last few days. I’m calling it “Clemson Football and the Mystery of the Shrinking Spread”.
Clemson opened as a 7.5-point favorite over Florida State. My initial reaction was that it was a reasonable amount, and quite respectful toward a Seminole squad that is legitimately improved over the past few years. The game is also in Tallahassee. It’s a tough place for a visiting team to play. -7.5 sounded very fair.
Then something odd happened. The spread dropped almost immediately to -4 points. That isn’t trivial. The spread was almost cut in half in just a few hours. What could be causing such a big change?
The first and most obvious reason why a line will move is that a large amount of money has been placed on one of the sides, and the books move the line to encourage betting on the opposite side. The books want to balance the betting as best they can between the two sides.
If this happened, then we can infer that a lot of money was bet on Florida State covering the spread, and it happened quickly. For this to be true, either many bettors quickly bet on FSU, or a few bettors each placed big money on the Seminoles, and the books saw it immediately and made a fast change.
I suppose this scenario could be true, but often when this happens and the line shrinks, it’s common for other bettors to take advantage and put money on the other side, in this case, on Clemson -4. This will often cause the line to move back in the other direction. It probably wouldn’t get back to -7.5, but you would think it would probably pop back up to -5 or -6.
That didn’t happen. Wynnbet now shows this spread at -3.5. It has dropped another half point since Sunday.
This suggests that bettors were still putting more money on Florida State than on Clemson even after the spread dropped by nearly 50%. Hmmm.
Time for my Leroy impression. What could explain this situation?
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
Maybe sharps legit think Florida State will be within a few points of Clemson
A ‘sharp’ is a bettor that is considered intelligent and astute. Sharps often review opening lines to see if any games interest them. If they see a spread they think is too high or too low, they will jump on it. When all the sharps are in agreement, then a lot of money comes in on one side, and the books move the line to compensate.
This would be the simplest explanation. The sharps saw the spread and said “I can get over a touchdown for Florida State? I’d be a fool not to bet this!” I suppose it’s possible, but does that sound right?
Clemson currently has the longest winning streak in the FBS. They are undefeated this season with two wins over Top 25 competition, one of which was on the road. Florida State has lost two games in a row, ironically to the two Top 25 teams Clemson defeated: Wake Forest and NC State. NC State lost star quarterback Devin Leary to injury but still beat the Seminoles.
Florida State was favored by 6.5 points over Wake Forest two weeks ago. NC State was a 3.5 favorite against Florida State in Raleigh, which means Clemson is favored on the road by the same amount State was favored at home.
Maybe the sharps and oddsmakers still have big-time respect for Florida State. Maybe they assume they just underestimated Wake Forest.
There could be something more to it, though.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
Maybe the sharps know something we don’t?
Sharps aren’t foolish with their money. Most of them handle their betting in a very business-like way. If you know anything about decision-makers in businesses, you know most of them don’t wing it. They want to base their decisions on information, not hunches or guesswork. Sometimes, business people maintain relationships with contacts simply to get information about competitors and customers.
Sharps maintain contacts and networks in the sports world too, and sometimes they get information before others. Often, this information can be about injuries. Going into last weekend, there was a lot of speculation publicly about the health of Kentucky’s Will Levis, and how his possible absence might impact the game. I think that several sharps knew more than the rest of us about Levis’ status.
Two things are going against this theory, however. Oddsmakers have contacts and networks too. If the sharps knew something, then it seems logical to think the books knew something too.
Additionally, all the feedback we have heard this week indicates that most of Clemson’s injured or sick players are back. Brian Bresee is back on the depth chart. Sheridan Jones is back too, as well as several others who have missed time over the past three weeks. From the fan’s perspective, Clemson appears to be getting healthier.
I must admit that Coach Swinney, the staff, and the players have become adept at keeping things secret until game day, so we can’t ignore the possibility that we are still in the dark about something, but it doesn’t seem likely.
This is what some bettors call a ‘rat line’. It’s a line that is not in the range anyone expects, but no one can seem to put a finger on the reason. Even on the road, a team ranked 4th in the AP Poll should be more than a 3.5-point favorite against an unranked opponent.
There is a rat here, and I think I have discovered the culprit.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
It’s Bill Connelly’s fault
Just like Encyclopedia Brown, I had to pay close attention to the details, but eventually, the clue surfaced.
https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1579534010644328448?s=20&t=NHwZY50wOmrBNdQH2zcVog
That’s right kids, it’s that meddlesome troublemaker, Bill Connelly, doing his best Bugs Meany impression. His SP+ “rating” says Clemson should only be a four point favorite over Florida State this weekend.
"“The Tigers are in an interesting place at the moment. Their defense struggled against both Louisiana Tech and Wake Forest but came together last week; their offense has battled inconsistency but is now up to 16th in points per drive thanks in part to good field position and great red zone production. My SP+ ratings don’t trust them because they aren’t really dominating a weak ACC landscape, but their odds of running the table are obviously increasing by the day.”"
The man that had Oklahoma ranked in the Top 6, even after getting blown out by TCU, apparently still buys into the lazy national narrative about Clemson, and he has lazy numbers to back it up.
My take: sportsbooks have much better power ranking systems than the SP+. The book’s systems recognized that the line should have been north of a touchdown, but apparently, there are enough bettors that have faith in calculations like the SP+ that they immediately jump on games where it says the line is too big or small.
It’s probably not just the SP+. An efficient sharp would have their own ranking system. You would think a smart sharp would always scrutinize the answer the data calculated, right?
Am I serious about this? Kind of. I do think calculated systems like the SP+ can provide insight, but they are based on data that isn’t complete, and that opinion is coming from someone who dislikes the eye test. I prefer resumes but you must temper them with common sense.
I don’t actually think Connelly is personally responsible, but the bigger-picture notion that one can make decisions on analytics alone has probably gotten its claws into sports too much. Analytics have led to some silly decisions when it comes to coaching and roster management, and now it appears to be leading to some silly decisions in the betting world as well.
Then again, they are called sharps for a reason, and despite my protestations to the contrary, the vast majority of the public believes Bill Connelly is smarter than me.
I guess we are just going to have to wait and see if Clemson -3.5 is the right line.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change