A quarter of the season is in the books for Clemson Football, and most of the other teams in the FBS as well. It’s hard to believe that it can go by that quickly, but with only twelve regular season games, time flies. It’s also hard to believe that we can actually know as little about some of these teams as we do after a quarter of the season has passed.
This time of year, we mainly have the AP and Coach’s polls to give us an idea of where teams stand because the College Football Playoff committee doesn’t release their initial rankings until November 1st.
Why does the CFP wait so long? The committee puts a lot of weight on resume and prefers to rely on the eye test as little as possible. With most teams playing only three games, the bulk of the best matchups are yet to come. To rank teams now, you have to put a lot of weight on the eye test.
Not every team has been taking it easy this season. Some of them aren’t afraid to play teams on the road (cough..Ohio State..cough). Some of them aren’t afraid to schedule Power Five programs (cough..Michigan..cough).
Coach Swinney’s said it simply:
"“I don’t think anybody knows who anybody is right now after three ballgames. I know the rankings and all that stuff – we’re wherever, a top-5 team, but that’s all based on past success. It really is at this point. And that’s great to have some street cred if you will. You have to go earn it. So that’s what we’re in the process of trying to do.”"
What would happen if we put the kind of weight on resume now that the committee puts on resume in November? What if we gave the praise to teams that win road games against Power Five programs or beat teams currently ranked in the Top 25 instead of beating up on lower-tier opponents at home? The rankings would look drastically different.
Let’s look at the AP Top 25 to see how they would fair if we scored their resumes instead of using the eye test. I looked at each team’s record and gave them a weighted score based on whether they won or lost against the Top 25, Power Five, Group of Five or the FCS, and whether it was at home, on the road or at a neutral site.
Is it perfect? No, but it gives us an idea.
Georgia – AP Rank: 1st, Resume score: 13
Georgia took on Oregon in Week 1 and annihilated them 49-3. Following an FCS cupcake, they went on the road to South Carolina and beat them 48-7. That’s a Top 25 win at a neutral site and a road win against a Power Five opponent. That’s a strong resume. The CFP committee would put Georgia right at the top, same as the AP. Their score might not get another big boost until the Florida game at the end of October, however.
Alabama – AP Rank: 2nd, Resume score: 12
We used to be able to poke fun at Nick Saban for being scared to play big programs on the road in the early season. Then Bama went and scheduled a road game against the Longhorns and ruined it for us. We almost had the last laugh, as Texas pushed the Tide to the bitter end, but a close win is still a win. With the Longhorns in the current Top 25, Alabama’s resume is much stronger at this point in the season than usual. It might get stronger if the Tide keep winning. Three ranked opponents in the next four weeks, two of whom host Alabama.
Ohio State – AP Rank: 3rd, Resume score: 7
I will admit I was a bit harsh on Ohio State earlier. They have played road games in the non-conference several times in the last decade. Not this year, however. All three games at home. While many would give the Buckeyes consideration that they thought the Irish would be better than they are, the reality is that win isn’t against a Top 25 team anymore. Unfortunately for Ohio State, they don’t have a chance to prove themselves against a Top 25 team until they visit Happy Valley in late October.
Michigan – AP Rank: 4th, Resume score: 6
Goodness, Big Blue, your resume score is even worse. Why? Three home games against three Group of Five teams. Yes, Michigan has scored at least 50 points against all three of their opponents, but until they venture away from Ann Arbor, their resume will hold them back. Suddenly, we realize the Big Ten is hurting in 2022: like the Buckeyes, Michigan’s first chance against a Top 25 team is against Penn State in mid-October, and no one else on their schedule is ranked right now. Ouch, Big Ten, very ouch.
Clemson – AP Rank: 5th, Resume score: 8.25
Through three games, Clemson has defeated Georgia Tech at a neutral site, and an FCS and Group of Five opponent at home. I gave a bit more weight to their win over the Yellow Jackets because it wasn’t a true neutral site game, being that it was in Atlanta and officially counted as a Georgia Tech home game. It also wasn’t a true road game either, as it wasn’t at Tech’s home stadium and most of the crowd wore orange. It’s a pretty average resume compared to most of the AP Top 25 right now, but Clemson’s chances are coming. They travel on the road to Wake Forest this weekend and then take on NC State at home.
Where does the rest of the Top 25 stand on resume?
AP Teams #6 – #25
Here is the balance of the Top 25 and their resume scores.
Oklahoma: 10 – road win at Nebraska
USC: 10 – road win at Stanford
Kentucky: 11 – road win at Florida
Oklahoma State: 6
Arkansas: 6
Tennessee: 12 – road win at Top 25 Pittsburgh
NC State: 8
Utah: 2 – they haven’t played anyone of significance to offset the road loss to Florida.
Penn State: 14 – the best resume score out there. The only team with two true road wins against Power Five opponents.
Oregon: 3.5 – loss to Georgia
Ole Miss: 9 – road win at Georgia Tech
Baylor: 2 – loss to BYU
Washington: 6
BYU: 7 – big win against Baylor, road loss to Oregon
Florida: 5
Wake Forest: 9
Texas: 3
Texas A&M: -1 – you are officially allowed to make fun of the Aggies. The only AP Top 25 team with a negative score.
Pittsburgh: 3
Miami: 2
Wins against the Top 25 count big time to the resume – the CFP committee will look favorably on those resumes. Same with road wins. Road wins against the Top 25? Let’s just say Tennessee’s win at #24 Pitt will go a long way…..if Pitt stays in the Top 25.
What about the rest of the pack? Do any of the upstarts of 2022 have better resume scores than the Top 25 teams?
The ROY Bus
This is how some of the teams on the outside looking in fare on resume score.
Florida State (3-0): 11.5 – FSU’s win against LSU was like Clemson’s win against Georgia Tech: neutral site but in the Bayou Bengals backyard. Add a road win at Louisville and the Seminoles have a good score early.
Kansas (3-0): 11 – Two road wins against FBS competition
Rutgers (3-0): 11 – Two road wins against FBS competition. Braver than Michigan (am I right, Casey?)
Syracuse (3-0): 10 – Two wins against Power Five and road win against Group of Five
Tulane (3-0): 9 – Big win at Kansas State last weekend
Duke (3-0): 9 – Road win against Power Five. It was Northwestern, but still on the road.
North Carolina (3-0): 9 – Why play the Group of Five on the road? The committee thinks its better than playing the Group of Five at home. It didn’t hurt that App beat TAMU the next week.
Iowa State (3-0): 9
Washington State (3-0): 9
Maryland (3-0): 8
TCU (2-0): 7
Oregon State (3-0): 7
Vanderbilt (3-1): 7
Minnesota (3-0): 6
Mississippi State (2-1): 6
Indiana (3-0): 6
Many of these teams weren’t expected to be contenders, so most voters will reserve judgement before assuming that any of them are for real before ranking them. If there is one team that deserves to be ranked here, its Florida State. There is no reason why they shouldn’t be ranked ahead of Miami and Texas A&M right now.
As for the rest of them, they just need to keep winning if they want to get noticed.