Clemson football: Bold predictions for the 2022 season

I consider myself to be reasonably objective for someone who has been a Clemson football fan for just over four decades, but I can be just as excitable as anyone when we are approaching a new season. The Tigers have a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball. Now add in the Clemson marketing staff doing a great job of promoting the program on social media, and I’m hooked. It’s time to throw caution to the wind and start making those bold predictions for the 2022 season!

But……the objective side of me refuses to completely back down. I do need to put some reason and justification behind these predictions. I could tell you that Clemson will win the national title, a player will win the Heisman, Dabo will be coach of the year and Clemson sweeps all the individual awards, but we know that is “pie in the sky silliness.”

I think all of these bold predictions can happen, but I also believe if you hit on most of your bold predictions, then they weren’t that bold to begin with. Predictions aren’t bold if they are too easy.

I’ve been thinking about these all summer. If I get a couple of these right, then I’m happy. Here we go!

KJ Henry will get an interception this season

I’ve always liked KJ. He won me over as a person during his commitment announcement. He won me over as a player when he volunteered to redshirt so he could become a better defensive end and bigger contributor the next season.

He is an athletic freak, so it came as no surprise to me when I saw this tweet from Clemson:

Normally, fans think of guys like KJ batting the ball down or getting the tip. Clemson fans have been treated a few times over the years with the interception by the big guy. Austin Bryant pulled one down at Virginia Tech in 2017, and Christian Wilkins got one off a deflection in the ACC Championship game against Pitt in 2018 (and almost made it to the end-zone).

Clemson’s defensive line will be putting a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year, but I expect defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin will also draw up some packages for the linebackers to apply pressure with blitzes, and sometimes that means a capable defensive end will drop into pass coverage. KJ has the athleticism to make big plays all over the field. One of these days, he will drop back, and I predict he will find the ball in his hands.

Clemson will have two running backs go over 1,000 yards each this season

The running backs were so young last year. Well, let me amend that: the running backs Clemson could rely on were so young last year. A sophomore and two freshmen. Add inconsistency on the offensive line due to injury and inexperience, and it took time for fans to see the full potential for this group.

By the end of the season, we started to get a better feel for how good these guys could be. Will Shipley and Kobe Pace were a 1-2 punch down the stretch, and Phil Mafah flashed enough for fans to be excited.

It’s safe to say this prediction is reliant on Shipley & Pace staying relatively injury free. If either of them do get hurt, the next man up is Mafah. I like Mafah, but I don’t have the confidence in him that I have in the top two backs. While Mafah did excite the crowd with a few big time plays, he didn’t show the consistency. To put it in perspective, DJ Uiagalelei (who was injured and barely ran last season) had more rushing yards and rushing touchdowns than Mafah.

For this bold prediction to hold true, however, the most important place Clemson needs good fortune with injuries is on the offensive line. If the Tigers are constantly changing their lineup like they did in 2021, it isn’t likely that one back will reach 1,000 yards, much less two.

Ngata will break through

I enjoy watching highlights on YouTube. If you haven’t watched this one of Joseph Ngata going over 100 yards receiving against Georgia last season, please watch it now. Or if you have seen it, watch it again.

Now remember how good that Georgia defense that lead the Bulldogs to a national championship was last year.

Remember how Clemson’s quarterback was impacted by the Bulldog defensive rush, and how the offensive line wasn’t able to do anything to stop it.

Remember how little the other receivers were able to get open.

Despite all that adversity, Ngata had about as good a night as a receiver could have. The man has talent. It’s always been there. It is reasonable to question if the dedication and preparation (physically and mentally) has always been there.

We all know Ngata’s biggest deficiency has been availability due to injuries. The phrase was coined by Bill Parcells, but Coach Swinney says it just as well:

"“Availability is the best ability.”"

Experience can be a wonderful and sometimes brutal teacher. Ngata was spoiled as a true freshman. He had Trevor Lawrence throwing him the ball, and Tee Higgins and a healthy Justyn Ross carrying the burden at receiver. Ngata didn’t have to be on the field taking the majority of snaps. The workload was lighter, and when he did get the call, he had one of the best quarterbacks in the game throwing him dimes.

Ngata has learned the hard way over the past two seasons that those days are in the past. He wasn’t ready for the physical aspect of being a main guy, and DJU isn’t T-Law.

The good news is Ngata isn’t oblivious to this, and he is working to change. He has adjusted his workout regimen and diet to improve his physical readiness. He is working with receivers coach Tyler Grisham to improve his mental readiness.

When we back up and ask what Ngata has been missing, it’s pretty clear what the problem has been: he hasn’t had a motor. He hasn’t been driven to push himself in the off-season and in practice to achieve at a higher level. He had to learn the hard way that nothing comes for free.

Ultimately, injuries can happen to even the most prepared athletes, so we will just need to keep our fingers crossed for Ngata, but we have reason to believe he is stepping up his physical and mental conditioning. It’s hard to put a statistical threshold on this prediction due to some of the other inconsistencies on offense, and the expectation that the run-game will be relied on heavily, but I think Ngata will be seen as an Offensive MVP candidate by the end of the season.

Six defensive players will have 5+ sacks

The 2021 Clemson defense had 42 sacks, which placed them at 10th in the FBS. Myles Murphy led the team with 8 sacks and Trenton Simpson had 6.5 sacks. They were the only two players that had more than five sacks. The balance of the sacks (27.5) were spread out amongst fourteen players.

As good as the defense has been over the last few seasons, the Tigers haven’t had a player with double digit sacks since Clelin Ferrell in 2018. The last time Clemson had two players with double digit season totals was in 2015 (Shaq Lawson & Kevin Dodd).

Brent Venables has moved on, and Wes Goodwin will do some things different, but I think the scheme will continue to bring pressure in multiple ways. The defensive line will apply most of the pressure, but the back seven will be used too. When I also consider that the depth on the line will likely lead to a rotation of players and that Simpson appears to be moving inside more, I tend to think that double digit sacks could be achieved by Murphy, but not likely by multiple players.

I do, however, think that several more players can go beyond five sacks in 2022. I think Murphy is a lock, and Simpson is enough of a weapon that he will get at least five sacks, regardless of where he plays. Xavier Thomas and KJ Henry came close last season (4.5 and 4.0 respectively). Neither Brian Bresee nor Tyler Davis were healthy all season. With better injury fortune, they could conceivably get there, along with Ruk Orhorhoro, who led defensive tackles in sacks in 2021 with 2.5. Add in guys like Barrett Carter and Jeremiah Trotter, who are expected to add athleticism to the linebacking corps, and we have several players who can contribute from all over the front seven.

To put this prediction in perspective, Georgia’s heralded 2021 defense just missed six players with 5+ sacks by half a sack (Nolan Smith had 4.5). I think 2022 Clemson gets there.

Trenton Simpson will jump over a blocker at some point this season

Simpson has the attention of pro scouts due to his production and athleticism. He has played at strong side linebacker during his first two seasons, but has gotten time at inside linebacker this off-season.

Regardless of position, Simpson will get his opportunities to pass rush this season. When he does, it’s inevitable that someone will try to block him low, and when they do…..

At some point, the blocker will go low for the block, and Simpson will go over him.

I think Simpson’s biggest contribution this season could come in the leadership category, both on the field and in the locker room. You can see in the tweet that his teammates respect him and look up to him. His experience will be critical to a back seven that is replacing five valuable starters, including James Skalski, who was considered the point guard of the defense. Athleticism is great, but it’s a team sport and coordination in the back seven is critical. Andrew Mukuba will see the field a lot this year, but he is still getting experience. Landen Zanders hasn’t seen the field much in the past two seasons. Jayln Phillips is a senior but hasn’t been a full time starter yet. Sheridan Jones and Nate Wiggins are in a similar position to Phillips – they have seen the field, but not with regularity. The guys expected to start at linebacker alongside Simpson are physical specimens but are young and inexperienced.

We know the defensive line will pull their weight. Simpson will be the key to the rest of the defense doing their part.

At least one opposing head coach will be fired after their game against Clemson

October 24, 2015. My wife’s cousin was getting married later that day, but I was able to sit in the hotel room and watch Clemson curb stomp the Miami Hurricanes in their own house 58-0. Clemson dominated from the start, and the game was out of hand by halftime. The next day, Miami fired their head coach, Al Golden.

Taking a look at Clemson’s 2022 schedule, I think this could happen again – I think an opposing head coach could be fired following their game with the Tigers. There are multiple candidates.

Geoff Collins starts the season on the hot seat, and has to open against Clemson on Labor Day Monday in Mercedes Benz Stadium. If the Clemson offense, which struggled to put up points last season, opens up with a big night against the Yellow Jackets, Collins might not even make it to Week 2.

The Tigers visit Doak Campbell Stadium in mid-October. Florida State is a proud program, and their fan base has struggled to stay optimistic with all the missteps taken by the university and the football program since their 2013 national championship. They are hopeful that 2022 is the year Coach Mike Norvell breaks through and the Seminoles return to contention in the ACC. The reality is that after FSU opens against an FCS opponent, they play LSU, Louisville, Boston College, Wake Forest and NC State before they play Clemson. If the Seminoles fare well against that schedule, they will be in good shape. If they start off under .500, and Clemson wins in The Doak, Florida State could pull the plug on Norvell.

Personally, I like Dino Babers, and apparently Coach Swinney is a fan too. Unfortunately, he only has one successful season in his tenure with the Orange, and like Collins, it was a bit of a surprise that he was retained for 2022. Syracuse has one of the best running backs in college football in Sean Tucker, but not a whole lot more to get excited about. The Orange’s schedule does include winnable games against Connecticut and an FCS opponent, but also Purdue, Virginia, Louisville and NC State. I think Syracuse respects Babers, but if they get off to a dreadful start, they could make a move at midseason so they can get a head start on hiring his successor. Clemson’s front line has the best chance of any team to contain Tucker, and if he can’t get things going against the Tigers, it could get ugly for Syracuse, and Babers could be let go.

Lastly, I’m just going to throw Scott Satterfield’s name out there. Most think the Cardinals will be a good team this year in the ACC, but if something goes seriously wrong for Louisville, Satterfield might find himself in trouble. He hasn’t always had a happy relationship with the fans. Let’s just say they drop their opener at Syracuse, or trip up against Jeff Scott’s South Florida squad, or look ahead to the Clemson game and stub their toe when they host James Madison. Or some combination of those with an overall poor record. It might not be likely, but it also wouldn’t shock me.